Couple Of Days

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Dry Weather and El Nino

Wednesday, August 5th, 2009

It seems like the indicators such as the Southern Oscillation Index has drought conditions worsening in Victoria and southern NSW. This is absolutely astonishing considering the type of summer Victoria had to contend with. Dry conditions continuing can only increase the likelihood of more potent bush fire weather in these regions.

Here it also continues rather cool and dry though frosts have not been as severe as other years. And it seems that the next couple of days may see increasing temperaturesAdelaide has a forecast temperature of 23C – rather unusual for this time of the year. Will be interesting to see if there is a rapid increase in temperature across central Australia and if this is periodically advected down to the southern parts towards the latter part of winter and early spring.

Jimmy

Cold with snow expected

Friday, July 3rd, 2009

Michael,

The weather has been mostly settled and uneventful here in the eastern states. However, it is interesting to see the the severe weather in the southern states – some damaging winds which also produced a dust haze here for a couple of days. Last night the winds were howling and quite strong for while when I was awake.

Some nice cumulonimbus off the coast about mid afternoon today. I suspect frost from now onwards with this cold outbreak.

Jimmy

Northeast NSW / Southeast Queensland Rain and Floods

Tuesday, May 19th, 2009

Hi Jimmy, An interesting aspect of the developing rain event is that GFS was forecasting this well over a week ago. It’s not often the charts remain so consistent. A high ridging NE into the northern Tasman Sea is a perfect situation to cradle a coastal low for a couple of days. Brisbane could do with some heavy falls though I suspect the worst of the flooding potential will again effect the Bellinger River.

The latest GFS rainfall chart is attached. Some parts of the Tweed Valley and SE QLD have had over 100mm of rain already.

GFS rainfall accumulation