WTXS21 PGTW 990419 07:00z
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 190651Z APR 99//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/180821Z APR 99//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPS21 PGTW 180830)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 8.4S2 93.1E3 TO 12.1S4 90.5E4
WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS.  AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 190600Z6 INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS
LOCATED NEAR 9.5S4 92.4E5. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWARD AT 04
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
ANIMATED VISIBLE AND INFRARED IMAGERY INDICATES THE CONVECTION HAS
BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. VISIBLE IMAGERY IS
ALSO SHOWING LOW-LEVEL CUMULUS LINES WRAPPING INTO THE SYSTEM
CENTER FROM THE NORTHWEST. HENCE, WE HAVE A HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN THE
LOCATION. UW-CIMSS WINDSHEAR AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATE STRONG
UPPER-LEVEL EASTERLIES AND INCREASING WINDSHEAR SOUTH OF THE AREA.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS ALSO INDICATES AN ANTICYCLONE HAS DEVELOPED
JUST NORTH OF THE AREA IN THE PAST 24 HOURS. STEERING LEVEL FLOW
SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY LOW (850MB) UNTIL IT BECOMES BETTER ORGANIZED,
SO IT SHOULD BEGIN TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD. OVERALL, IMPROVING AND
FAVORABLE  CONDITIONS EXIST. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT VALID UNTIL 200700Z9.
4. SEE REF A FOR DETAILS ON A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
LOCATED NEAR 10.9S0 139.8E1//
=========================================================================
WARNING 001 NOT AVAILABLE
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 990420 03:00z
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING    
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 33S WARNING NR 002 RELOCATED  
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   200000Z2 --- NEAR 11.0S2 93.6E8
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 090 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 11.0S2 93.6E8
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   201200Z5 --- 12.3S6 93.2E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   210000Z3 --- 13.2S6 92.1E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE  
                            040 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   211200Z6 --- 13.8S2 91.1E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE  
                            040 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   220000Z4 --- 14.2S7 90.1E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE  
                            055 NM ELSEWHERE
    ---
REMARKS:
200300Z5 POSITION NEAR 11.3S5 93.5E7. 
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 33S HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS
SOUTHWEST OF SUMATRA OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION 
AND INTENSITY ARE BASED UPON 192330Z8 ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE 
IMAGERY WITH CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS. THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH TC 33S REMAINS DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT 
USING INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. INDEED, THE FORECAST TRACK HAD TO 
BE RELOCATED AS THE SYSTEM APPEARS TO HAVE TRACKED FURTHER 
SOUTHEASTWARD THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. TROPICAL CYCLONE 33S IS 
MOVING IN THE WEAK STEERING FLOW OF THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED EAST 
OF THE SYSTEM. AS TC 33S APPROACHES THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS 
SOUTH, IT IS FORECAST TO BEGIN A MORE WESTWARD TRACK. THE UW-CIMSS 
SHEAR CHARTS AND ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW TC 33S IS 
PRESENTLY MOVING SOUTH OF THE 200 MB RIDGE. AS TC 33S CONTINUES 
SOUTH OF THE RIDGE, THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE, WHICH 
WILL DAMPEN FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS, MUCH OF 
THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS SHEARED TO THE SOUTH. HENCE, THE FORECAST 
INTENSITY PHILOSOPHY HAS CHANGED AND TC 33S IS NOW FORECAST TO STAY 
A WEAK SYSTEM. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 200000Z IS 12 
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 201500Z8 (DTG 201351Z2) AND 210300Z6 (DTG 
210151Z0).//
=========================================================================
WARNING 003 NOT AVAILABLE
=========================================================================
WARNING 004 NOT AVAILABLE
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 990421 15:00z    
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 33S (HAMISH) WARNING NR 005    
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   211200Z6 --- NEAR 15.9S5 90.4E3
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE      
                            050 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: 15.9S5 90.4E3
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   220000Z4 --- 17.3S1 90.2E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE      
                            050 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   221200Z7 --- 18.5S4 89.2E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   230000Z5 --- 19.7S7 88.2E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   231200Z8 --- 20.7S9 86.8E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
211500Z9 POSITION NEAR 16.2S9 90.3E2. 
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 33S (HAMISH) HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD 
AT 5 KNOTS SOUTHWEST OF SUMATRA OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED UPON 211130Z8 ANIMATED VISIBLE AND INFRARED 
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED UPON SATELLITE 
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 KNOTS. TC HAMISH IS RAPIDLY 
WEAKENING AND IS BEING STEERED AT LOWER LEVELS AS IT IS SHEARED 
APART. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO RESUME ITS SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK AS 
THE CONVECTION IS DECOUPLED FROM THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. 
ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THE UW-CIMSS SHEAR CHARTS INDICATE 
TC 33S IS MOVING INTO AN INCREASINGLY HIGHER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR 
ENVIRONMENT, WITH THE CONVECTION BEING RIPPED OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST. 
THE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED TO REFLECT A SHIP REPORT FROM 
210900Z2 AS WELL AS A STRONGER SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT. TC 33S 
IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN IN INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM 
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 211200Z6 IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 
220300Z7 (DTG 220151Z1) AND 221500Z0 (DTG 221351Z4).//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 990422 03:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 33S (HAMISH) WARNING NR 006
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   220000Z4 --- NEAR 16.5S2 88.5E1
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 200 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            060 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: 16.5S2 88.5E1
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   221200Z7 --- 18.1S0 87.3E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 180 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            060 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   230000Z5 --- 19.8S8 86.1E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   231200Z8 --- 21.2S5 84.7E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   240000Z6 --- 21.9S2 82.6E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
220300Z7 POSITION NEAR 16.9S6   88.2E8.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 33S (HAMISH) HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 5 KNOTS SOUTHWEST OF SUMATRA OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED UPON 212330Z1 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE
WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED UPON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS AND AN EARLIER SCATTEROMETER PASS (210350Z1)
OF 45 KNOTS. IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES TC HAMISH HAS BECOME A
PARITIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) NORTHWEST OF
THE CONVECTION. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THE UW-CIMSS VERTICAL
WINDSHEAR CHARTS INDICATE TC 33S IS MOVING INTO AN INCREASINGLY
HIGHER VERTICAL WINDSHEAR ENVIRONMENT, WITH THE CONVECTION BEING
SHEARED TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW. TC HAMISH IS
SLOWLY WEAKENING AND IS BEING STEERED AT THE LOWER LEVELS AS IT
BECOMES SHEARED. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ITS
SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK UNDER THE PRIMARY STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE
RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST. TC 33S IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN DUE TO
INCREASING VERTICAL WINDSHEAR. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
220000Z4 IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 221500Z0 (DTG 221351Z4) AND
230300Z8 (DTG 230151Z2).//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 990422 15:00z
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 33S (HAMISH) WARNING NR 007
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   221200Z7 --- NEAR 17.0S8 86.9E3
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 200 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            090 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: 17.0S8 86.9E3
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   230000Z5 --- 17.4S2 85.4E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   231200Z8 --- 17.6S4 83.4E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   240000Z6 --- 17.5S3 80.9E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 14 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   241200Z9 --- 17.3S1 77.9E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
221500Z0 POSITION NEAR 17.1S9   86.5E9.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 33S (HAMISH) HAS TRACKED TOWARDS THE WEST-
SOUTHWEST AT 6 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION
IS BASED ON 221130Z9 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON A SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.5
(35 KNOTS) AND EXTRAPOLATION FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. TC 33S
(HAMISH) HAS BECOME FULLY EXPOSED, THEREFORE, LOWERING THE LEVEL IN
WHICH THE SYSTEM IS STEERED. THE LOW LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
SOUTH HAS BEGUN TO TRACK THE SYSTEM MORE TOWARD THE WEST. THIS
STRONG WESTWARD FLOW IS EXPECTED TO STEER THE SYSTEMS REMAINING LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AS THE CONVECTION IS SHEARED TO THE
EAST. THE LLCC IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE ON A WESTWARD TRACK AFTER
THE 12 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. TC 33S (HAMISH) MAY OCASSIONALLY BUILD
BACK SOME SHORT TERM CONVECTION, BUT A GRADUAL DISSIPATION OF THE
LLCC IS FORECASTED BY THE 48 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THE WIND RADII
HAS BEEN ADJUSTED DUE TO A PREVIOUS SCATTEROMETER IMAGE AND AN
ENHANCE PRESSURE GRADIENT SOUTH OF THE SYSTEMS CENTER. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221200Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
230300Z8 (DTG 230151Z2) AND 231500Z1 (DTG 231351Z5).//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 990423 03:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 33S (HAMISH) WARNING NR 008
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   230000Z5 --- NEAR 17.1S9 85.7E0
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 180 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            060 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: 17.1S9 85.7E0
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   231200Z8 --- 17.2S0 84.0E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   240000Z6 --- 17.4S2 82.2E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   241200Z9 --- 17.7S5 79.9E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
230300Z8 POSITION NEAR 17.1S9   85.3E6.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 33S (HAMISH) HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS
DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 222330Z2
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY ANALYSIS. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED
ON A SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 30 KNOTS AND THE TIGHT
BANDING OF LOW-LEVEL CUMULUS CLOUD LINES. TC 33S (HAMISH) REMAINS
FULLY EXPOSED, THEREFORE, LOWERING THE STEERING LEVEL. THE LOW-LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH IS STEERING THE SYSTEM MORE WESTWARD
OVER THE PAST 18 HOURS. THIS WESTWARD FLOW IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
TO STEER THE SYSTEMS LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AS THE
CONVECTION REMAINS SHEARED TO THE EAST. TC 33S (HAMISH) IS FORECAST
TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE BY THE 36 HOUR POSITION DUE TO
CONTINUED MODERATE TO STRONG VERTICAL WINDSHEAR. THE WIND
RADII REFLECTS A PREVIOUS SCATTEROMETER IMAGE AND AN ENHANCED
PRESSURE GRADIENT SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 230000Z5 IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 231500Z1 (DTG
231351Z5) AND 240300Z9 (DTG 240151Z3).//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 990423 15:00z
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 33S (HAMISH) WARNING NR 009
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   231200Z8 --- NEAR 16.3S0 84.4E6
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   REPEAT POSIT: 16.3S0 84.4E6
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   240000Z6 --- 16.2S9 82.9E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   241200Z9 --- 16.1S8 80.4E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
231500Z1 POSITION NEAR 16.3S0   84.0E2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 33S (HAMISH) HAS TRACKED TOWARDS THE WEST AT 7
KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
231130Z0 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED
ON EXTRAPOLATION FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING AND PRIOR SCATTEROMETER
IMAGES. TC 33S (HAMISH) CONTINUES TO TRACK WITHIN THE FLOW OF THE
LOW LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. TC 33S (HAMISH) IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE ON A WESTWARD TRACK DURING THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AND BEGIN TO ACCELERATE TOWARDS THE WEST AS THE SYSTEM MOVES DEEPER
INTO THE STRONG STEERING FLOW. MODERATE TO STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR
WILL CONTINUE TO INHIBIT DEVELOPMENT OF ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.
TC 33S IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE BY
THE 24 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. STRONGER WINDS MAY REMAIN ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CIRCULATION DUE TO AN ENHANCED PRESSURE
GRADIENT TO THE SOUTH. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231200Z IS
14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 232100Z8 (DTG 231951Z1), 240300Z9 (DTG
240151Z3) AND 240900Z5 (DTG 240751Z9).//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 990424 03:00z
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 33S (HAMISH) WARNING NR 010
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   240000Z6 --- NEAR 16.2S9 83.4E5
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   REPEAT POSIT: 16.2S9 83.4E5
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   241200Z9 --- 16.2S9 82.2E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
240300Z9 POSITION NEAR 16.2S9  83.1E2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 33S (HAMISH) HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER
THE LAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED UPON
232330Z3 ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH SATELLITE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25 KNOTS. TROPICAL CYCLONE 33S CONTINUES TO
TRACK WESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE
LOCATED TO ITS SOUTHWEST. THE SYSTEM IS STILL EXPERIENCING MODERATE
TO STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND TC 33S IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE
AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE BY THE 12-HOUR FORECAST POSITION.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240000Z6 IS 10 FEET. THIS IS THE
FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER
(NAVPACMETOCCEN HI).  THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS
OF REGENERATION.//

Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.

Document: tropical_cyclone_hamish_jtwc_advisories.htm Updated: 17 June 2020 [Australian Severe Weather index] [Copyright Notice] [Email Contacts] [Search This Site] [Privacy Policy]