WTPS21 PHNC 20010220 03:00z COR
REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/200251Z FEB 01//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT WTPS21 PGTW 200300//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
195 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 18.3S2 167.1W5 TO 24.1S7
163.2W2 WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.   AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT
JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS
TIME.   WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS.
METSAT IMAGERY AT 200230Z7 INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS
LOCATED NEAR 20.8S0 165.0W2.   THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWARD AT
05 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THIS SUPERSEDES REF A. ANIMATED VISIBLE AND INFRARED IMAGERY REVEAL
A WEAK LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER PERSISTS WEST OF THE DEEP
CONVECTION. A 192029Z3 SPECIAL SENSOR MICROWAVE IMAGER (SSM/I) SHOWS
MOST OF THE CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE EAST
OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 191717Z6 QUICKSCAT
PASS CONFIRMED A WEAK LLCC OUTSIDE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS MAINTAINING GOOD OUTFLOW
ALOFT. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE REMAINS GOOD.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR COR: TO CORRECT MANOP LINE FROM PGTW TO PHNC
AND CORRECT THE DTG OF METSAT IMAGERY FROM 192330Z8 TO 200230Z7.
4. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
210300Z6.//
=========================================================================
WTPS 31 PHNC 20010220 21:00z    
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P WARNING NR 001    
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   201800Z1 --- NEAR 22.6S0 163.1W1
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 22.6S0 163.1W1
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   210600Z9 --- 24.6S2 161.4W2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE  
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE  
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 16 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   211800Z2 --- 27.1S0 159.1W6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE  
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE  
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE  
                            075 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE  
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 19 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   220600Z0 --- 30.0S3 156.4W6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE  
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE  
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE  
                            085 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE  
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 23 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   221800Z3 --- 33.6S2 153.1W0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE  
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE  
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE  
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE  
    ---
REMARKS:
TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P, LOCATED 205 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF 
RAROTONGA ISLAND IN THE SOUTH PACIFIC OCEAN, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEAST 
AT 11 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED 
ON 201730Z3 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS. ANIMATED 
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS IMPROVING ORGANIZATION OVER THE 
PAST 12 HOURS WITH DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING AROUND THE EASTERN SEMI-
CIRCLE OF THE SYSTEM. A 201615Z5 SPECIAL SENSOR MICROWAVE IMAGER 
PASS DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTION PRIMARILY EAST OF THE LOW LEVEL 
CIRCULATION CENTER. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS IMPROVED 
OUTFLOW OVER THE SYSTEM. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST IS 
EXPECTED TO STEER THE SYSTEM SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. 
THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE IN THE 
NEXT 24 HOURS BEFORE UNDERGOING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION LATE IN THE 
FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 201800Z1 IS 12 
FEET. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 
200821Z FEB 01 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPS21 PHNC 200300) 
NEXT WARNINGS AT 210900Z4 AND 212100Z7.//
=========================================================================
WTPS 31 PHNC 20010221 09:00z    
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (OMA) WARNING NR 002    
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   210600Z9 --- NEAR 24.1S7 160.0W7
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 115 DEGREES AT 19 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE  
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE  
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE  
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE  
   REPEAT POSIT: 24.1S7 160.0W7
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   211800Z2 --- 26.7S5 156.5W7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE  
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE  
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE  
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE  
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 29 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   220600Z0 --- 30.9S2 152.1W9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE  
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE  
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE  
                            085 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE  
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 33 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   221800Z3 --- 37.0S0 149.0W4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE       
                            025 NM WEST SEMICIRCLE       
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 105 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE       
                            070 NM WEST SEMICIRCLE       
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 35 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   230600Z1 --- 43.4S1 145.5W5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   EXTRATROPICAL
    ---
REMARKS:
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11P (OMA), LOCATED 155 NM SOUTH OF RAROTONGA 
ISLAND IN THE SOUTH PACIFIC OCEAN, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEAST AT 19 
KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 
210530Z1 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 KNOTS AND A 
NEARBY SYNOPTIC REPORT OF 47 KNOTS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE 
IMAGERY DEPICTS IMPROVING ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS WITH 
DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING AROUND THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF THE 
SYSTEM. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS IMPROVED OUTFLOW OVER 
THE SYSTEM. TC 11P IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTHEAST UNDER THE STEERING 
INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST. THE SYSTEM 
IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS BEFORE 
UNDERGOING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. TC 
11P IS EXPECTED TO COMPLETE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY THE 48 HOUR 
FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 210600Z9 IS 16 
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 212100Z6 AND 220900Z3.//
=========================================================================
WTPS 31 PHNC 20010221 22:00z    
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (OMA) WARNING NR 003    
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   211800Z2 --- NEAR 27.6S5 156.0W2
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 140 DEGREES AT 24 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE  
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE  
   REPEAT POSIT: 27.6S5 156.0W2
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   220600Z0 --- 32.9S4 152.5W3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 30 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   221800Z3 --- 38.1S2 148.9W2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   EXTRATROPICAL
    ---
REMARKS:
TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P, LOCATED 700 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF TAHITI 
ISLAND IN THE SOUTH PACIFIC OCEAN, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEAST AT 24 KNOTS 
DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON A 211600Z0 
DMSP PASS. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT 
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 KNOTS. INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS 
RAPIDLY WEAKENING CONVECTION AS THE SYSTEM UNDERGOES EXTRATROPICAL 
TRANSITION. TC 11P IS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOW-MID 
LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST, ENHANCED BY THE MIDLATITUDE MAJOR 
TROUGH WEST OF THE SYSTEM. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TRACK 
SOUTHEASTWARD AND TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY BEFORE BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL BY 
THE END OF THE PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 211800Z IS 
16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 221000Z5.//
=========================================================================
WTPS 31 PHNC 20010222 09:00z    
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (OMA) WARNING NR 004    
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   220600Z0 --- NEAR 32.6S1 150.2W8
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 140 DEGREES AT 35 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   EXTRATROPICAL
   REPEAT POSIT: 32.6S1 150.2W8
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   221800Z3 --- 38.5S6 147.7W9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   EXTRATROPICAL
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 31 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   230600Z1 --- 44.4S2 145.2W2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   EXTRATROPICAL
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 46 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   231800Z4 --- 53.1S9 140.5W0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   EXTRATROPICAL
    ---
REMARKS:
TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 430 NM SOUTHWEST OF
DAHUREI ISLAND, IN THE SOUTH PACIFIC OCEAN, HAS TRACKED 
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 35 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING 
POSTION IS BASED ON A 220530Z2 INFRARED IMAGERY. THE WARNING 
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 
KNOTS. SATELLITE ANIMATION DEPICTS TC 11P HAS COMPLETED ITS EXTRA-
TROPICAL TRANSITION. IMAGERY ALSO REVEALS THAT THE MAJORITY OF 
CONVECTION IS DISPLACED WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. TC 11P 
IS FORECAST TO CONTNUE ON A SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE PERIOD. 
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220600Z0 IS 18 FEET. THIS IS THE 
FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE NAVAL PACIFIC METEOROLOGY AND 
OCEANOGRAPHY CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY 
MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.//

Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.

Document: tropical_cyclone_oma_jtwc_advisories.htm Updated: 17 June 2020 [Australian Severe Weather index] [Copyright Notice] [Email Contacts] [Search This Site] [Privacy Policy]