WTXS21 PGTW 20090125 03:30z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
095 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 18.5S 119.1E TO 19.9S 114.9E
WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 27 TO 32 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 242330Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 18.6S 118.8E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 14
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 18.0S
114.9E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.6S 118.8E, APPROXIMATELY 340 NM
NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS AN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION WITH GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW
AND A DEVELOPING POLAR OUTFLOW CHANNEL OFF-SHORE OF PORT HEDLAND,
AUSTRALIA. A RECENT WEATHER RADAR COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY LOOP
FROM PORT HEDLAND INDICATES A WELL FORMED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH TIGHT CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE
CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF
FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 27 TO 32 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. DUE TO THE RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF THE LLCC, THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
260330Z.
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20090125 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (TEN) WARNING NR 001//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (TEN) WARNING NR 001    
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTH IO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   251200Z --- NEAR 19.3S 117.0E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF 
     SATELLITE AND RADAR
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 19.3S 117.0E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   260000Z --- 19.6S 115.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   261200Z --- 20.0S 114.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   270000Z --- 20.2S 113.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   271200Z --- 20.8S 112.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 095 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   281200Z --- 21.0S 114.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
251500Z POSITION NEAR 19.4S 116.6E.
TC 10S (TEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 235 NM NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH,
AUSTRALIA HAS MOVED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST O6
HOURS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS VERY GOOD WESTWARD OUTFLOW
OVER CONVECTIVE BANDS THAT HAVE WRAPPED TIGHTER INTO THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). RADAR COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY LOOP FROM
DAMPIER, AUSTRALIA DEPICTS A DISCERNIBLE LLCC SURROUNDED BY LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAINBANDS. CURRENT CENTRAL WIND SPEED IS BASED FROM SATEL-
LITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW ANS APRF AND EXTRAPOLATED FROM
NEARBY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. POSITION IS BASED ON SATELLITE AND RADAR
IMAGERY ANIMATIONS WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALY-
SIS INDICATES THE CYCLONE IS IN AN AREA FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVE-
LOPMENT WITH WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, LIGHT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AND GOOD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING ALONG THE
NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE STRETCHED ALONG
SOUTHERN AUSTRALIA. BY TAU 48, MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A TROUGH TO
THE WEST OF THE LLCC IS EXPECTED TO DIG TO THE SOUTHEAST CAUSING TC
10S TO RETROGRADE AND REVERSE ITS MOTION TOWARDS THE EAST. THIS
WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVMARFCSTCEN 250321Z JAN 09
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 250330) MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 251200Z IS 9 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
260300Z, 260900Z AND 261500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20090125 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (TEN) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (TEN) WARNING NR 002 
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO 
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE 
--- 
WARNING POSITION: 
251800Z --- NEAR 18.8S 116.3E 
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 06 KTS 
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM 
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE 
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: 
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT 
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY 
REPEAT POSIT: 18.8S 116.3E 
--- 
FORECASTS: 
12 HRS, VALID AT: 
260600Z --- 19.1S 115.3E 
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT 
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY 
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 05 KTS 
--- 
24 HRS, VALID AT: 
261800Z --- 19.5S 114.4E 
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT 
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY 
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT 
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 03 KTS 
--- 
36 HRS, VALID AT: 
270600Z --- 19.9S 114.0E 
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT 
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY 
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT 
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 02 KTS 
--- 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 
48 HRS, VALID AT: 
271800Z --- 20.1S 114.4E 
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT 
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY 
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT 
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 095 DEG/ 03 KTS 
--- 
72 HRS, VALID AT: 
281800Z --- 20.2S 115.7E 
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT 
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY 
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT 
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT 
--- 
REMARKS: 
252100Z POSITION NEAR 18.9S 116.0E. 
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 251800Z IS 9 FEET. 
NEXT WARNINGS AT 260900Z AND 262100Z. 
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20090126 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (TEN) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (TEN) WARNING NR 003    
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   260000Z --- NEAR 19.5S 116.1E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 19.5S 116.1E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   261200Z --- 19.9S 115.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   270000Z --- 20.3S 115.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   271200Z --- 20.8S 115.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   280000Z --- 21.3S 116.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   290000Z --- 22.4S 117.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
260300Z POSITION NEAR 19.6S 116.0E.
TC 10S (TEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 200 NM NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, 
AUSTRALIA HAS MOVED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST O6
HOURS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS HEALTHY EQUATORWARD AND 
POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNELS. THE RADAR COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY 
LOOP FROM DAMPIER, AUSTRALIA DEPICTS A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER 
(LLCC) WITH WELL DEFINED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC 
FROM THE SOUTH. A 252237Z SSMI MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS A WELL 
DEFINED CONVECTIVE BAND WRAPPING AROUND THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF 
THE SYSTEM AND INTO THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE LLCC. CURRENT CENTRAL 
WIND SPEED IS BASED ON SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND 
APRF, OBSERVATIONS FROM BARROW ISLAND AND A 252240Z QUIKSCAT IMAGE. 
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE SYSTEM 
REMAINS IN AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT WITH 
LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND HIGH SEA SURFACE TEMPURATURES. AS THE 
SYSTEM MOVES SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE NORTHWEST COAST OF AUSTRALIA IT 
WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY AFFECTED BY FRICTION AND WILL ENTRAIN DRY 
AIR FROM THE SOUTH. AT TAU 24 AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH 
WILL WEAKEN THE STEERING ENVIRONMENT CAUSING THE SYSTEM TO SLOW AND 
TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL 
RIDGE OVER SOUTHERN AUSTRALIA. BY TAU 48 THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO 
BE OVER LAND AND DISSIPATING.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 260000Z IS 10 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 260900Z, 261500Z, 262100Z AND 270300Z.
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20090126 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (DOMINIC) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (DOMINIC) WARNING NR 004    
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTH IO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   260600Z --- NEAR 20.2S 115.6E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF 
     SATELLITE AND RADAR
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 20.2S 115.6E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   261800Z --- 20.8S 115.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 02 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   270600Z --- 21.1S 115.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   271800Z --- 21.4S 116.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   280600Z --- 21.9S 117.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
260900Z POSITION NEAR 20.3S 115.5E.
TC 10S (DOMINIC), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 140 NM NORTHEAST OF 
LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA HAS MOVED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE 
PAST O6 HOURS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DEEPENING 
CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) 
WITH GOOD DUAL OUTFLOW CHANNELS. WEATHER RADAR LOOP FROM DAMPIER, 
AUSTRALIA DEPICTS A DISCERNIBLE LLCC WITH MODERATE REFLECTIVITY 
VALUES IN A SEMI-CIRCULAR BAND ALONG ITS SOUTHERN BOUNDARY. CURRENT 
CENTRAL WIND SPEED IS BASED ON SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM 
PGTW, KNES AND APRF, AND ALSO FROM SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM NEARBY 
REPORTING STATIONS. POSITION IS BASED ON RADAR IMAGERY LOOP AND A 
252237Z SSMI-S PASS SHOWING A BULLS-EYE CENTER. THE SYSTEM REMAINS 
IN AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPURATURES. TC 10A IS 
TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A LOW TO MID LEVEL 
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. HOWEVER, AT TAU 24, A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL 
WEAKEN THE STEERING RIDGE CAUSING THE CYCLONE TO SLOW THEN RECURVE 
SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS LAND AND DISSIPATE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE 
HEIGHT AT 260600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 261500Z, 262100Z, 
270300Z AND 270900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20090126 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (DOMINIC) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (DOMINIC) WARNING NR 005    
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTH IO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   261200Z --- NEAR 20.7S 115.3E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 210 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF 
     SATELLITE AND RADAR
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 20.7S 115.3E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   270000Z --- 21.6S 115.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   271200Z --- 22.5S 115.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
261500Z POSITION NEAR 20.9S 115.2E.
TC 10S (DOMINIC), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 115 NM NORTHEAST OF LEAR-
MONTH, AUSTRALIA HAS MOVED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST O6
HOURS. WEATHER RADAR LOOP FROM DAMPIER, AUSTRALIA SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER HAS SLOWED DOWN AND CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAP-
PING INTO IT HAVE TIGHTENED SLIGHTLY. CURRENT CENTRAL WIND SPEED IS
BASED ON SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES AND APRF, AND
ALSO FROM SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM NEARBY REPORTING STATIONS. POSI-
TION IS BASED ON ANIMATED RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 261046Z
SSMI-S PASS SHOWING A WELL-DEFINED CENTER. THE SYSTEM REMAINS IN AN
ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPURATURES. TC 10S IS TRACKING
ALONG THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A LOW TO MID LEVEL SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE. HOWEVER, AT TAU 12, A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL WEAKEN THE
STEERING RIDGE CAUSING THE CYCLONE TO SLOW FURTHER THEN RECURVE
SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS LAND AND DISSIPATE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 261200Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 262100Z, 270300Z AND
270900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20090126 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (DOMINIC) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (DOMINIC) WARNING NR 006
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   261800Z --- NEAR 21.3S 115.2E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 190 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
     SATELLITE AND RADAR
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 21.3S 115.2E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   270600Z --- 22.2S 115.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   271800Z --- 23.1S 115.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
262100Z POSITION NEAR 21.5S 115.2E.
TC 10S (DOMINIC), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 80 NM NORTHEAST OF LEAR-
MONTH, AUSTRALIA HAS MOVED SOUTHWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06
HOURS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED OFF THE LEARMONTH RADAR AND
INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON A 50-KNOT OBSERVATION FROM THEVENARD
ISLAND. TC 10S HAS TURNED SOUTHWARD IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH TO ITS SOUTHWEST. THE SYSTEM WILL MAKE LANDFALL AROUND TAU
06, AND THEN WEAKEN OVER LAND. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
261800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 270300Z AND 270900Z.
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20090127 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (DOMINIC) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (DOMINIC) WARNING NR 007
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   270000Z --- NEAR 21.9S 115.3E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 170 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
     SATELLITE AND RADAR
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   REPEAT POSIT: 21.9S 115.3E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   271200Z --- 23.1S 115.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   280000Z --- 24.6S 116.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
270300Z POSITION NEAR 22.2S 115.4E.
TC 10S (DOMINIC), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 72 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF LEAR-
MONTH, AUSTRALIA HAS MOVED SOUTHWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06
HOURS. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THE STORM HAD AN INTENSITY OF 50
KNOTS WHEN IT MADE LANDFALL. TC 10S WILL WEAKEN BELOW 35 KNOTS BY
TAU 24. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WARNING CENTER (NAVMARFCSTCEN).  THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONI-
TORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
270000Z IS 12 FEET.

Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.

Document: tropical_cyclone_dominic_jtwc_advisories.htm Updated: 17 June 2020 [Australian Severe Weather index] [Copyright Notice] [Email Contacts] [Search This Site] [Privacy Policy]