Updated: 17 June 2020
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| Tropical Cyclones
[Index] | Tropical Cyclone JOSIE : JTWC Advisories |
| Season 2017-2018 Summaries (Operational Data): [AU] [SIO] [SPAC] [SH] | |
| ---> Tropical Cyclone JOSIE Track Map and Data |
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (JOSIE) WARNING NR 001
WTPS31 PGTW 311500
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (JOSIE) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
311200Z --- NEAR 18.5S 175.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 115 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.5S 175.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 19.2S 177.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 19.9S 178.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 20.5S 179.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 005 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 21.5S 179.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 005 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 23.8S 179.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
285 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 26.4S 177.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
375 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 30.7S 173.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
375 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
311500Z POSITION NEAR 18.7S 176.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (JOSIE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 144 NM WEST
OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 311200Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 312100Z, 010300Z, 010900Z AND 011500Z.
=========================================================================
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (JOSIE) WARNING NR 002
WTPS31 PGTW 312100
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (JOSIE) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
311800Z --- NEAR 19.0S 177.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 115 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.0S 177.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 19.6S 178.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 20.2S 179.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 21.0S 179.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 22.1S 179.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 24.5S 178.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 205 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 27.1S 175.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
385 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 30.4S 172.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
290 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
175 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
312100Z POSITION NEAR 19.2S 177.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (JOSIE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 92 NM
SOUTHWEST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 12
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 311800Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 010300Z, 010900Z, 011500Z AND 012100Z.
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 010300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (JOSIE) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
010000Z --- NEAR 19.7S 177.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.7S 177.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 20.3S 178.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 20.8S 178.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 22.0S 179.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 23.0S 180.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 25.2S 178.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
320 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 28.2S 174.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
370 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 31.2S 172.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
255 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
010300Z POSITION NEAR 19.8S 177.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (JOSIE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 121 NM
SOUTHWEST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 010001Z GMI 89GHZ IMAGE DEPICT A PARTIALLY COVERED
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE
EAST OF CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED
SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH LOW CONFIDENCE DUE TO A BROAD LLCC. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 45 KTS IS SLIGHTLY ABOVE KNES AND
PGTW CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.5 (35 KTS) BUT IS MORE IN
AGREEMENT WITH THE PHFO T3.0 (45 KTS) 00Z FIX, AND IS HEDGED BELOW
A 311811Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 50 KTS. TC 18P IS TRACKING
SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A NEAR-EQUATORIAL STEERING
RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND EAST. GENERALLY SOUTHEASTWARD MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS UNDER THE
CONTINUED STEERING INFLUENCE OF THIS NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE. AROUND
TAU 36, SOME MODELS EXPECT AN EXTENSION OF THE RIDGE TO DEVELOP TO
THE EAST OF TC 18P AND BRIEFLY PUSH ITS TRACK MORE POLEWARD. TC 18P
IS SITUATED IN AN AREA OF MODERATE TO SEVERE (20-30 KTS) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR WHICH IS BEING OFFSET BY FAVORABLE EQUATORWARD AND
EASTWARD DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. LIMITED INTENSIFICATION IS
ANTICIPATED THROUGH TAU 36 AS THE SYSTEM PASSES OVER VERY WARM
WATER (28-29 DEGREES CELSIUS) AND CONTINUES TO BE INFLUENCED BY
STRONGLY DIFFLUENT FLOW AND MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WITH A
PEAK INTENSITY OF 50 KTS AT TAU 12. AFTER TAU 24, THE SYSTEM WILL
WEAKEN TEMPORARILY AS SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES COOL AND AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW FORMS
IN THE VICINITY, SUPPRESSING OUTFLOW AND WEAKENING THE SYSTEM.
HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REINTENSIFY SLIGHTLY AS IT
ENTERS THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND TRANSITIONS INTO A SUBTROPICAL
CYCLONE WITH AN EXPANSIVE WIND FIELD REMOVED FROM THE CENTER WHILE
MAINTAINING A WARM CORE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. NUMERICAL
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL STEERING
SCENARIO. DIFFERENCES IN THE DEGREE TO WHICH THE NER TO THE EAST
AMPLIFIES LEAD TO SPREAD BETWEEN GUIDANCE DEVELOPING IN THE LATER
TAUS AS SOME MODELS PUSH THE TRACK SLIGHTLY POLEWARD, AND OTHER
MODELS DO NOT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 010000Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 010900Z, 011500Z, 012100Z AND 020300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 010900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (JOSIE) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
010600Z --- NEAR 19.9S 177.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.9S 177.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 20.7S 177.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 21.5S 178.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 22.7S 179.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 24.0S 179.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 26.0S 178.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
010900Z POSITION NEAR 20.1S 177.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (JOSIE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 128 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE FINAL FRAMES OF ANIMATED MULTI-
SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTED CURVED BANDING WRAPPING
INTO A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
CENTRAL DEEP CONVECTION. AN APPROACHING SHORT-WAVE TROUGH HAS
LIMITED THE OUTFLOW TO THE WEST, PARTIALLY EXPOSING THE SURFACE FLOW
AND INCREASING THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), WHICH IS NOW ESTIMATED
TO BE AROUND 30 KNOTS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE ANIMATED
MSI AND THE PGTW FIX WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY WAS LOWERED TO 40 KNOTS, WITH DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 2.0 TO 2.5 (30 TO 35 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND
KNES, WITH DATA-T NUMBERS COMING DOWN SLIGHTLY. WHILE AUTOMATED
FIXES REMAIN HIGHER AT 45 TO 50 KNOTS, OBSERVATIONS IN THE AREA DO
NOT APPEAR TO SUPPORT THE HIGHER VALUES. JOSIE IS TRACKING
SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE
TO THE NORTHEAST. SHIPS INTENSITY OUTPUT INDICATES VWS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO INCREASE, MAKING FURTHER INTENSIFICATION UNLIKELY. THE
FORECAST WAS MAINTAINED OUT TO 72 HOURS, AT WHICH POINT 18P IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME SUB-TROPICAL, HOWEVER, DISSIPATION BELOW 35 KNOTS
IS EXPECTED BY TAU 48. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 010600Z IS
15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 011500Z, 012100Z, 020300Z AND 020900Z.
=========================================================================
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (JOSIE) WARNING NR 005
WTPS31 PGTW 011500
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (JOSIE) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
011200Z --- NEAR 20.0S 177.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.0S 177.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 20.8S 178.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 22.0S 178.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 23.5S 179.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 24.7S 179.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 26.7S 177.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
011500Z POSITION NEAR 20.2S 177.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (JOSIE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 130 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) IMAGERY
DEPICTS AN INCREASINGLY ASYMMETRIC CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST
OBSCURING A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A 011321Z GPM 36 GHZ IMAGE
REVEALS CURVED BANDING FEATURES WITH DEEP CONVECTION CONSTRAINED TO THE
EAST AND SOUTH OF THE LLC. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A DEFINED
CENTER IN THE AFOREMENTIONED GPM IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT
40 KNOTS, WHICH IS AN AVERAGE OF AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITIES OF 30-45
KNOTS, WITH AUTOMATED ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE YIELDING 40 KTS. UNFORTUNATELY
BOTH ASCAT AND OSCAT PASSES MISSED THE CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVERHEAD IS IMPINGING ON THE WESTWARD OUTFLOW AND PROVIDING HIGH
(30 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), HOWEVER, ROBUST OUTFLOW TO THE EAST IS
PARTIALLY COMPENSATING. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE A FAVORABLE 28 DEGREES CELSIUS.
JOSIE IS TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A SUB-TROPICAL
RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. SHIPS ANALYSIS INDICATES VWS SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST. FORECAST INTENSITIES SHOW A SLOW WEAKENING TREND AS PARTIALLY
OFFSETS THE EFFECTS OF THE VWS. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE 18P WILL BEGIN TRANSITIONING
TO A SUB-TROPICAL CYCLONE AFTER TAU 48 AS THERMAL ADVECTION BECOMES MORE PRONOUNCED.
THE FORECAST CALLS FOR INCREASING VWS TO FINALLY RESULT IN DISSIPATION BY TAU 72, WHICH
IS APPROXIMATELY THE SAME TIME THE SUB-TROPICAL TRANSITION IS EXPECTED TO COMPLETE. THE
FORECAST CALLS FOR DISSIPATION OVER WATER, HOWEVER, SOME MODELS INDICATE RE-STRENGTHENING
AFTER THE SUB-TROPICAL TRANSITION. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT TIMING OF DISSIPATION,
IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE SUB-TROPICAL TRANSITION SCENARIO MAY PREVAIL.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 011200Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 020300Z AND 021500Z.
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 012100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (JOSIE) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
011800Z --- NEAR 19.7S 177.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 060 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.7S 177.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 20.2S 178.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 21.9S 179.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 23.1S 179.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
235 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 24.2S 179.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
320 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 26.3S 177.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
365 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
012100Z POSITION NEAR 19.8S 178.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (JOSIE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 102 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
IMAGERY DEPICTS AN INCREASINGLY ASYMMETRIC CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST
BEING SHEARED TO THE EAST, OBSCURING A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). A 011732Z SSMIS 91 GHZ IMAGE REVEALS LOW-LEVEL BANDING
FEATURES TO THE WEST OF FLARING DEEP CONVECTION TO THE EAST. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED SSMIS IMAGE WITH
FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 35 KNOTS, WHICH IS
IN AGREEMENT WITH THE PHFO AND KNES DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF T2.5 (35 KTS), AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE PGTW ESTIMATE OF
T2.0 (30 KTS). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ALOFT IS IMPINGING ON THE WESTWARD OUTFLOW AND PROVIDING HIGH
(25-40 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). DRY AIR IS BEGINNING TO WRAP
INTO THE SYSTEM, CONTRIBUTING TO THE RECENT WEAKENING. HOWEVER,
ROBUST BUT DIMINISHING OUTFLOW TO THE EAST IS PARTIALLY COMPENSATING
AND STILL SUPPORTING SOME CONVECTION ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE
SYSTEM. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE A FAVORABLE 28 DEGREES CELSIUS,
DECREASING TO THE SOUTH. AN AMSU CROSS-SECTION REVEALS A BURGEONING
MID-TROPOSPHERIC COLD ANOMALY SANDWICHED BETWEEN LOW-LEVEL AND UPPER-
LEVEL WARM ANOMALIES, WHICH IS SOMEWHAT CHARACTERISTIC OF A
SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM. TC 18P RECENTLY MADE A SLIGHT TRACK DEVIATION
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A SUB-TROPICAL
RIDGE THAT IS RECEDING TO THE EAST, BUT A TURN BACK TOWARD THE
SOUTHEAST IS EXPECTED. THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST PREDICTS THAT THE
SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN A MARGINAL 35-KT INTENSITY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH SUPPRESSES DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND VWS INCREASES ALONG THE
FORECAST TRACK DUE TO A MID-LATITUDE JET TO THE SOUTH. GLOBAL MODELS
ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT TC 18P WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST THEN
SOUTHEASTWARD. THE TRANSITION SCENARIO TO SUBTROPICAL STORM AFTER
TAU 48 NOW APPEARS TO BE FAVORED BY NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE AS AN
UPPER-LEVEL LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE SYSTEM AND THERMAL ADVECTION
BECOMES MORE PRONOUNCED, RESULTING IN AN EXPANDED WIND FIELD. THE
FLORIDA STATE UNIVERSITY CYCLONE PHASE SPACE PREDICTS THE SYSTEM
WILL REMAIN WARM CORE BUT BECOME MORE ASYMMETRIC, WHICH SUGGESTS A
MORE SUBTROPICAL VICE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. SLIGHT
INTENSIFICATION TOWARD THE LATTER PORTION OF THE FORECAST DURING
SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION IS EXPECTED THROUGH TAU 72. DUE TO LOW SPREAD
IN THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 011800Z IS 20
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 020300Z, 020900Z, 021500Z AND 022100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 020300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (JOSIE) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
020000Z --- NEAR 20.8S 178.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.8S 178.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 21.9S 179.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 23.2S 179.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
225 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 24.4S 179.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
280 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 25.5S 178.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
365 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 28.1S 175.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
300 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
185 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
020300Z POSITION NEAR 21.1S 178.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (JOSIE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 162 NM SOUTH
OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY DEPICTS AN
ASYMMETRIC CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST BEING SHEARED TO THE EAST,
OBSCURING A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 011855Z SSMIS 91
GHZ IMAGE REVEALS LOW-LEVEL BANDING FEATURES TO THE WEST OF FLARING
DEEP CONVECTION TO THE EAST. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE
AFOREMENTIONED SSMIS IMAGE WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS SET AT 35 KNOTS BASED ON A 012149Z ASCAT PASS SHOWING
PATCHES OF 35 KT WIND BARBS TO THE NORTHEAST AND TO THE SOUTH, WITH
THE AREA OF HIGHER WINDS TO THE SOUTH 75NM REMOVED FROM THE CENTER.
THIS INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS ABOVE THE 010000Z PGTW FIX OF CURRENT
INTENSITY T2.0 (30 KTS), BUT IN AGREEMENT WITH RECENT KNES AND NFFN
FIXES OF T2.5 (35 KTS). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS MOVED INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST, PROVIDING
HIGH (25-40 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). MODERATE OUTFLOW TO
THE EAST IS STILL SUPPORTING SOME CONVECTION ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF
THE SYSTEM. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE A FAVORABLE 27 DEGREES
CELSIUS, DECREASING TO THE SOUTH. TC 18P HAS MADE THE EXPECTED TURN
BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A NEAR-
EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST
PREDICTS THAT THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN A MARGINAL 35-KT INTENSITY
AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SUPPRESSES DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND VWS
INCREASES ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK DUE TO A MID-LATITUDE JET TO THE
SOUTH. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT TC 18P WILL CONTINUE TO
TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW FORMS OVER TC 18P AND THE
SYSTEM TRANSITIONS INTO A SUBTROPICAL STORM WITH AN EXPANDED,
ASYMMETRIC WIND FIELD. THE FLORIDA STATE UNIVERSITY CYCLONE PHASE
SPACE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN WARM CORE
BUT BECOME MORE ASYMMETRIC, THUS SUGGESTING A MORE SUBTROPICAL VICE
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION TOWARD THE LATTER
PORTION OF THE FORECAST DURING SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION IS EXPECTED
THROUGH TAU 72. DUE TO LOW SPREAD IN THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS,
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020000Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
020900Z, 021500Z, 022100Z AND 030300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 020900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (JOSIE) WARNING NR 008
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
020600Z --- NEAR 21.1S 178.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.1S 178.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 22.2S 179.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 23.4S 179.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
235 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 24.6S 179.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
285 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 25.8S 177.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
375 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 28.4S 175.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
285 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
020900Z POSITION NEAR 21.4S 178.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18P (JOSIE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 180 NM SOUTH
OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE
REMAINING DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TC 18P HAS BEEN SHEARED TO
THE EAST OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED ON A 020600Z HIMAWARI INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGE
WHICH SHOWS THE PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLCC LOCATED TO THE WEST OF THE
DEEPEST CONVECTION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS BASED ON
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.5 (35 KNOTS) FROM KNES AND PGTW.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS UNFAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (30 TO 40
KNOTS) WHICH CONTINUES TO DISPLACE THE LLCC FROM THE DEEP CONVECTION.
TC 18P ALSO HAS MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW WHICH WILL LEAD TO A SLIGHT
INTENSIFICATION. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT, NEAR 28 DEGREES CELSIUS. HOWEVER, TC 18P WILL ENCOUNTER
COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AS IT CONTINUES TO TRACK
SOUTHEASTWARD. THE COMBINATION OF THESE FACTORS WILL ALLOW FOR TC 18P
TO MAINTAIN AN INTENSITY OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS FOR THE REST OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. TC 18P IS TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD AROUND THE
NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST. AS TC 18P
TRACKS SOUTHEASTWARD IT WILL BEGIN SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 48
AND BECOME COMPLETELY SUBTROPICAL BY TAU 72. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE
SHOWS A GENERAL SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK AND IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT.
THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WHICH
IS PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 020600Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 021500Z, 022100Z,
030300Z AND 030900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (IRIS) WARNINGS
(WTPS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (JOSIE) WARNING NR 009
WTPS31 PGTW 021500
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (JOSIE) WARNING NR 009
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
021200Z --- NEAR 21.4S 178.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 165 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.4S 178.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 22.4S 179.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 23.7S 179.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
235 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 24.8S 178.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
265 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 25.8S 177.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
365 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 28.7S 174.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
255 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
021500Z POSITION NEAR 21.7S 178.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18P (JOSIE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 198 NM SOUTH
OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021200Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 022100Z, 030300Z, 030900Z AND 031500Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (IRIS) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 022100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (JOSIE) WARNING NR 010
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
021800Z --- NEAR 21.5S 178.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 110 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.5S 178.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 22.5S 179.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
235 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 23.4S 179.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 24.3S 178.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
275 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 25.8S 176.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
370 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
022100Z POSITION NEAR 21.8S 179.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (JOSIE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 205 NM SOUTH
OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS AN EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED OVER 100 NM TO THE EAST. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED EIR WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED ASCAT IMAGE.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS UNFAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (30 TO 40
KNOTS) WHICH CONTINUES TO DISPLACE THE LLCC FROM THE DEEP
CONVECTION. TC 18P ALSO HAS MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW WHICH WILL
LEAD TO A SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION BY TAU 24. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
ARE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT, NEAR 28 DEGREES CELSIUS. HOWEVER, TC
18P WILL ENCOUNTER COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AS IT CONTINUES
TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD. THE COMBINATION OF THESE FACTORS WILL CAUSE
18P TO TRANSITION INTO A SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM STARTING BY TAU 12 AND
BECOME COMPLETELY SUBTROPICAL BY TAU 72. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE
SHOWS A GENERAL SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK AND IS IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT. THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK WHICH IS PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021800Z IS 19 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
030300Z, 030900Z, 031500Z AND 032100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P
(IRIS) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 030300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (JOSIE) WARNING NR 011
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
030000Z --- NEAR 21.7S 179.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.7S 179.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 22.7S 179.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 23.6S 178.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
335 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 24.5S 177.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
435 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 26.0S 174.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
415 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
030300Z POSITION NEAR 22.0S 179.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (JOSIE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 221 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED MUTLI-SPECTRAL
(MSI) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED 80 NM TO THE SOUTHEAST.
THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE EXPOSED LOW LEVEL FEATURE IN
THE MSI LOOP WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS
IS BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION FROM A 022129Z METOP-A ASCAT PASS THAT
SHOWED 40 KNOT WIND BARBS IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRAT WHICH IS SLIGHTLY
ABOVE MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM
T2.0 TO T2.5 FROM KNES AND PGTW RESPECTIVELY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT 17P IS IN AN AREA OF HIGH (30 TO 40 KNOTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND IS TRACKING THROUGH AN AREA OF WARM (28
CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS
CAUSING THE CONVECTION TO DISPLACE TO THE SOUTHEAST. TC 18P WILL
CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE SOUTHEAST WHERE IT WILL ENCOUNTER COOLER
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND PERSISTENT UNFAVORABLE SHEAR. THE
COMBINATION OF THESE FACTORS WILL CAUSE 18P TO BEGIN TO TRANSITION
INTO A SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM BY TAU 12 AND BECOME COMPLETELY
SUBTROPICAL BY TAU 48. AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK TO THE
SOUTHEAST FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. DUE TO THE GOOD
AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS, THERE IS OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030000Z IS
20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 030900Z, 031500Z, 032100Z AND 040300Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (IRIS) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 030900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (JOSIE) WARNING NR 012
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
030600Z --- NEAR 22.8S 179.6W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.8S 179.6W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 24.4S 177.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
030900Z POSITION NEAR 23.2S 179.1W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (JOSIE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 304 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS A RAGGED AND FULLY EXPOSED LLC
WITH FLARING CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE EASTERN FLANK. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE ON THE LLC IN THE MSI LOOP AND
MATCHES THE LOW REFLECTIVITY CIRCULATION FEATURE IN THE 030552Z
SSMIS MICROWAVE PASS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HEDGED HIGHER THAN
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 25-30 KNOTS TO ACCOUNT FOR
THE SUSTAINED LLC STRUCTURE. TC 18P HAS ACCELERATED INTO AN AREA OF
HIGH (GREATER THAN 30-KNOT) VWS. CONCURRENTLY, THE CYCLONE IS RAPIDLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL AS EVIDENCED BY ITS EXPANDING WIND FIELD AND
ASYMMETRIC PROFILE. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ALONG ITS
TRACK AND DEEPER INTO HIGHER VWS AREA. IN VIEW OF THIS, TC JOSIE IS
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AND BECOME SUBTROPICAL BY TAU 12 OR SOONER.
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN
PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF
REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030600Z IS 12 FEET.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (IRIS) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR
SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.
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Document: tropical_cyclone_josie_jtwc_advisories.htm
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