Updated: 17 June 2020
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| Tropical Cyclones
[Index] | Tropical Cyclone KENI : JTWC Advisories |
| Season 2017-2018 Summaries (Operational Data): [AU] [SIO] [SPAC] [SH] | |
| ---> Tropical Cyclone KENI Track Map and Data |
WTPS21 PGTW 070200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 155 NM RADIUS OF 15.2S 171.6E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 070130Z INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 15.3S 171.4E. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 15.2S 171.4E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.3S 171.4E, APPROXIMATELY
376 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF NADI, FIJI. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 062143Z METOP-A 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT
A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP
CONVECTION PERSISTING OVER THE LLCC AND SOME BANDING BEGINNING TO
WRAP INTO THE CENTER. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN AN AREA OF
FAIR UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (28-29
CELSIUS), OFFSET BY MODERATE (15-20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTH INTO A MORE FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT THAT WILL SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE
THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN QUASISTATIONARY FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS WITH
MODEL GUIDANCE BEYOND TAU 12 SPLIT BETWEEN SOUTHEASTWARD TO
SOUTHWESTWARD MOVEMENT. GLOBAL MODELS DO AGREE 91P WILL DEVELOP
BETWEEN TAU 24 TO TAU 42. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
080200Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS21 PGTW 080200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT REISSUED//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/070151ZAPR2018//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 170 NM RADIUS OF 17.4S 170.5E WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 080130Z INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 17.4S 170.5E. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 15.3S 171.4E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.4S 170.5E, APPROXIMATELY
121 NM EAST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 072241Z GMI 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT
A BETTER ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP
CONVECTION PERSISTING OVER THE LLCC AND SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING
TIGHTLY INTO THE CENTER. A 072122Z METOP-B ASCAT PASS REVEALS A
DEFINED ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH NUMEROUS 25-30 KNOT WINDS
SURROUNDING THE CENTER. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN AN AREA
OF MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20 KNOTS) WITH IMPROVED POLEWARD
OUTFLOW WHICH IS AIDING DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THE
SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24
HOURS WITH THE SYSTEM REMAINING QUASISTATIONARY FOR THE FIRST 24
HOURS BEFORE PROCEEDING ON A SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS HIGH. THIS SUPERSEDES REF A.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
090200Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 082100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/080151ZAPR2018//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (KENI) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
081800Z --- NEAR 16.5S 170.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.5S 170.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 17.3S 172.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 18.4S 175.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 20.4S 178.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 25 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 23.8S 177.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 35 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 35.7S 169.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 345 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
315 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
082100Z POSITION NEAR 16.7S 171.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19P (KENI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 155 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH IMPROVED DEEP CONVECTIVE
BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THIS
IMPROVED CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE IS EVIDENT IN A 081902Z SSMIS 91GHZ
IMAGE, WHICH SHOWS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED
LLCC. OVERALL, THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION AND
RECENT TRACK MOTION. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS IMPROVED
NEAR-RADIAL OUTFLOW WITH A DISTINCT POLEWARD CHANNEL ENHANCED BY THE
MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES TO THE SOUTH. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.5 (35
KNOTS) FROM KNES AND PGTW. AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF QUASISTATIONARY
MOTION, TC 19P IS CURRENTLY TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE
POSITIONED TO THE NORTHEAST. TC 19P WILL ACCELERATE EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD TO SOUTHEASTWARD AS IT PASSES JUST SOUTH OF FIJI
BETWEEN TAU 24 AND TAU 36 WITH LAND INTERACTION SLIGHTLY HINDERING
DEVELOPMENT. DUE TO THE FAVORABLE OUTFLOW AND WARM SST, TC 19P IS
FORECAST TO INTENSIFY TO A PEAK OF 65 KNOTS BY TAU 36, HOWEVER, NEAR
TAU 36 THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH A DEEP MIDLATITUDE
TROUGH AND WILL COMMENCE EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT). BY TAU 48,
THE SYSTEM WILL BECOME EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
TROUGH AND WILL WEAKEN MORE RAPIDLY AS IT ENCOUNTERS STRONG VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AND COOLER SST. TC 19P IS FORECAST TO COMPLETE ETT BY TAU
72 AS IT GAINS FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS AND TRACKS NEAR THE JET.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081800Z IS 9 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 090300Z, 090900Z, 091500Z AND 092100Z. THIS CANCELS AND
SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPS21 PGTW 080200).//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 090300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (KENI) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
090000Z --- NEAR 16.7S 171.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.7S 171.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 17.6S 173.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 19.1S 176.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 22 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 21.7S 179.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 30 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 26.3S 175.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 36 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 39.0S 167.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 275 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
280 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
195 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
090300Z POSITION NEAR 16.9S 172.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19P (KENI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 188 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH TIGHTLY CURVED
BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THIS
IMPROVED CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE IS EVIDENT IN A 082201Z METOP-B 89GHZ
IMAGE, WHICH SHOWS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED
LLCC. OVERALL, THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION AND
RECENT TRACK MOTION. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS IMPROVED
NEAR-RADIAL OUTFLOW WITH A DISTINCT POLEWARD CHANNEL ENHANCED BY THE
MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES TO THE SOUTH. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
ASSESSED AT 40 KNOTS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T2.5 (35 KNOTS) TO T3.0 (45 KNOTS). TC 19P IS
CURRENTLY TRACKING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE POSITIONED TO THE
NORTHEAST. TC 19P WILL ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARD AS IT PASSES JUST
SOUTH OF FIJI BETWEEN TAU 24 AND TAU 36 WITH LAND INTERACTION
SLIGHTLY HINDERING DEVELOPMENT. DUE TO THE FAVORABLE OUTFLOW AND
WARM SST, TC 19P IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY TO A PEAK OF 65 KNOTS BY
TAU 24, HOWEVER, AFTER TAU 36 THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH
A DEEP MIDLATITUDE TROUGH AND WILL COMMENCE EXTRA-TROPICAL
TRANSITION (ETT). BY TAU 48, THE SYSTEM WILL BECOME EMBEDDED WITHIN
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE TROUGH AND WILL WEAKEN MORE RAPIDLY AS IT
ENCOUNTERS STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND COOLER SST. TC 19P IS
FORECAST TO COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 72 AS IT GAINS FRONTAL
CHARACTERISTICS AND TRACKS NEAR THE JET. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 090000Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 090900Z, 091500Z,
092100Z AND 100300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 090900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (KENI) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
090600Z --- NEAR 17.2S 172.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 115 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.2S 172.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 18.4S 175.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 20.3S 178.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 27 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 23.9S 177.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 225 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
225 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 32 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 29.0S 173.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 285 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
255 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 38 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 43.3S 166.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 305 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
090900Z POSITION NEAR 17.5S 173.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (KENI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 248 NM EAST OF
PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME MORE
CONSOLIDATED AS CONVECTIVE BANDS COALESCED AND WRAPPED INTO AN
OBSCURED LLC. THE INITIAL POSITION IS EXTRAPOLATED DOWNSTREAM FROM A
LOW REFLECTIVITY CIRCULATION FEATURE IN THE 090315Z SSMI 37 GHZ PASS
AND JUST SOUTHEASTWARD OF AN OVERSHOOTING DIMPLE FEATURE IN THE
090600Z VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON
THE DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T3.0 (45 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND REFLECTS THE
IMPROVED STATE OF THE CYCLONE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 19P
IS IN AN AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE (10-15 KNOT) SOUTHWESTERLY VWS
THAT IS MOSTLY OFFSET BY EXCELLENT DUAL OUTFLOW. ALONG-TRACK SSTS AT
30C ARE ALSO CONDUCIVE. TC KENI IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE NER TO THE NORTHEAST. THE AFOREMENTIONED OVERALL
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL IN THE NEAR TERM AND FUEL GRADUAL
INTENSIFICATION UP TO 70 KNOTS BY TAU 24. AFTERWARD, INCREASING VWS
AND COOLING SSTS WILL STEADILY ERODE THE CYCLONE. BY TAU 36, TC 19P
WILL ACCELERATE INTO THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND COMMENCE EXTRA-TROPICAL
TRANSITION. BY TAU 72, THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM INTO A STRONG
GALE-FORCE COLD CORE LOW WITH AN EXPANDING WIND FIELD. THE AVAILABLE
NUMERIC GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO
THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090600Z
IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 091500Z, 092100Z, 100300Z AND 100900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 091500 COR
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (KENI) WARNING NR 004A CORRECTED//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (KENI) WARNING NR 004A CORRECTED
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
091200Z --- NEAR 17.4S 173.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 100 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.4S 173.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 19.0S 176.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 21 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 21.5S 179.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 28 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 25.5S 175.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 215 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 34 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 31.2S 171.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 265 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
091500Z POSITION NEAR 17.8S 174.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (KENI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 266 NM WEST OF
SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. ANIMATED EIR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM CONTINUED TO
CONSOLIDATE AS CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPED TIGHTER INTO AN OBSCURED LLC.
THE INITIAL POSITION IS EXTRAPOLATED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE FROM A
NEWLY-FORMED MICROWAVE EYE IN THE 091106Z GPM PASS. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T3.5 (55 KNOTS)
FROM PGTW AND REFLECTS THE IMPROVED STATE OF THE CYCLONE. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 19P IS IN AN AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE (10-15
KNOT) SOUTHWESTERLY VWS THAT IS MOSTLY OFFSET BY EXCELLENT DUAL
OUTFLOW. ALONG-TRACK SSTS AT 30C ARE ALSO CONDUCIVE. TC KENI IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE NER TO THE NORTHEAST. THE
AFOREMENTIONED OVERALL FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL IN THE NEAR
TERM AND FUEL GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION UP TO 80 KNOTS BY TAU 24.
AFTERWARD, INCREASING VWS AND COOLING SSTS WILL STEADILY ERODE THE
CYCLONE. BY TAU 36, TC 19P WILL ACCELERATE INTO THE BAROCLINIC ZONE
AND COMMENCE EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION. BY TAU 48, THE SYSTEM WILL
TRANSFORM INTO A STRONG GALE-FORCE COLD CORE LOW WITH AN EXPANDING
WIND FIELD. THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT,
LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091200Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
092100Z, 100300Z, 100900Z AND 101500Z. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION:
ADDED "BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL" AND "EXTRATROPICAL" TO WARNING
MESSAGE AT TAU 36 AND TAU 48, RESPECTIVELY.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 092100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (KENI) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
091800Z --- NEAR 17.8S 174.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 115 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.8S 174.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 19.8S 178.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
185 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 25 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 23.1S 177.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 225 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 31 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 27.9S 173.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 280 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 34 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 33.9S 170.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 350 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
320 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
092100Z POSITION NEAR 18.3S 175.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (KENI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 206 NM WEST OF
SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED EIR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE MASS OF
DEEP CONVECTION COVERING UP THE LLCC. THE EDGE OF THIS CENTRAL DENSE
OVERCAST (CDO) REGION HAS SHARPENED, AND CLOUD TOPS HAVE COOLED OVER
THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MODERATE
CONFIDENCE BASED ON TIGHTLY CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING OBSERVED IN
SHORTWAVE INFRARED (SWIR) IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON
DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T4.0 (65 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND PHFO, SUPPORTED BY
A 091800Z ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE ESTIMATE OF 63 KNOTS. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 19P IS IN AN AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
(15 TO 20 KNOTS) SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) THAT IS
MOSTLY OFFSET BY EXCELLENT DUAL CHANNEL OUTFLOW TO THE SOUTHEAST AND
NORTHEAST. ALONG-TRACK SSTS AT 28C TO 29C ARE ALSO CONDUCIVE. TC
KENI IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE NER TO THE NORTHEAST. THE
AFOREMENTIONED OVERALL FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL IN THE NEAR
TERM AND FUEL STEADY INTENSIFICATION UP TO 85 KNOTS BY TAU 24.
AFTERWARD, AN UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN
UPSTREAM OF 19P, CAUSING RAPIDLY INCREASING VWS. INCREASING VWS AND
COOLING SSTS WILL STEADILY ERODE THE CYCLONE AS IT ACCELERATES INTO
THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND COMMENCES EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION. BY TAU
48, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE TRANSFORMED INTO A STRONG GALE-
FORCE COLD CORE LOW WITH AN EXPANDING WIND FIELD. THE AVAILABLE
NUMERIC GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE
TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
091800Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 100300Z, 100900Z, 101500Z AND
102100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 100300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (KENI) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
100000Z --- NEAR 18.7S 177.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 115 DEGREES AT 18 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.7S 177.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 21.5S 179.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 215 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 27 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 25.5S 175.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 260 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
185 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 36 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 31.7S 171.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 325 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
320 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 45 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 40.4S 168.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 385 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
345 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
315 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
100300Z POSITION NEAR 19.4S 178.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (KENI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 87 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 18
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A LARGE MASS OF DEEP CONVECTION
CENTRALLY LOCATED OVER AND OBSCURING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON
A FORMING DIMPLE FEATURE IN THE MSI LOOP AND A 092140Z METOP-B 89GHZ
AMSU MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWING DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A
MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 70 KNOTS IS BETWEEN
MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T4.0 TO
T4.5 (65-77 KNOTS). UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM HAS
STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW WITH LESS ORGANIZED EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT TC 19P IS IN AN AREA OF LIGHT TO
MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOTS) NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS)
AND IS TRACKING THROUGH WARM (28-29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. TC KENI IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE NER
LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST. GENERALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS ALLOWING FOR STEADY INTENSIFICATION UP
TO 85 KNOTS BY TAU 12. AFTER TAU 12, SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL
DECREASE AND VWS WILL INCREASE DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH
DEEPENING UPSTREAM. THE OVERALL UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL CAUSE
THE SYSTEM TO BEGIN A WEAKENING TREND. AROUND TAU 24 TC 19P WILL
ALSO BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT), COMPLETING ETT BY TAU
48. THE INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS IN PHASE WITH THE STORM
MOTION WHICH WILL ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN STRONG WINDS
RESULTING IN AN EXTRA-TROPICAL SYSTEM WITH AN EXPANSIVE GALE FORCE
WIND FIELD. AVAILABLE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT
AGREEMENT, LENDING OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100000Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 100900Z, 101500Z, 102100Z AND 110300Z.
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 100900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (KENI) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
100600Z --- NEAR 19.5S 179.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 110 DEGREES AT 22 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.5S 179.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 22.9S 176.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 31 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 27.8S 172.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 260 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
185 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 40 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 35.3S 168.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 325 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
320 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
100900Z POSITION NEAR 20.3S 179.7W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19P (KENI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 96 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 22
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL DEFINED TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH A 14NM WIDE EYE
SURROUNDED BY DEEP AND PERSISTENT CONVECTION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
BASED ON A 100606Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE WHICH CLEARLY SHOWS A
MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 85 KNOTS IS BASED ON
A 100211Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 84 KNOTS AND HEDGED SLIGHTLY BELOW
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T5.0 (90 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND KNES.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10 TO 15
KNOTS) AND EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
REMAIN FAVORABLE, NEAR 28 DEGREES CELSIUS. THESE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS
HAVE ALLOWED TC 19P TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY. TC 19P IS TRACKING TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND WILL CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE AS IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASED
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. TC 19P WILL
BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 24. BY TAU 36, TC 19P WILL
COMPLETE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AND REMAIN A STRONG SYSTEM AS IT
TRACKS SOUTHEASTWARD. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT,
THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100600Z IS 29 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 101500Z, 102100Z, 110300Z AND 110900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 101500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (KENI) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
101200Z --- NEAR 21.1S 178.7W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 25 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.1S 178.7W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 25.2S 174.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 34 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 31.1S 170.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 295 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
290 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 37 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 38.2S 167.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 375 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
360 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
175 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
101500Z POSITION NEAR 22.1S 177.6W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19P (KENI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 243 NM
SOUTHEAST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 25 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THAT TC 19P NO LONGER HAS AN EYE FEATURE AND THAT THE DEEP
CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO WEAKEN. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A
101011Z METOP-B ASCAT IMAGE WHICH CLEARLY SHOWS THE LOCATION OF THE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 85
KNOTS IS HEDGED SLIGHTLY BELOW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY (CI)
ESTIMATES OF T5.0 (90 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND KNES BASED ON A WEAKENING
CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS FAVORABLE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (5 TO 15 KNOTS) AND EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE BETWEEN 27 AND 28 DEGREES
CELSIUS. THESE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH AS TC 19P
RAPIDLY TRACKS SOUTHEASTWARD. TC 19P WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND
CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE AS IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AND COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. TC 19P WILL BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION BY TAU 24. BY TAU 36, TC 19P WILL COMPLETE EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION AND REMAIN A STRONG SYSTEM AS IT QUICKLY TRACKS
SOUTHEASTWARD. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT,
THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101200Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 102100Z, 110300Z, 110900Z AND 111500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 102100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (KENI) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
101800Z --- NEAR 23.2S 176.1W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 32 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 205 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.2S 176.1W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 28.4S 171.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 255 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 36 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 35.0S 168.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 305 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
315 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
225 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
102100Z POSITION NEAR 24.5S 175.0W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (KENI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 435 NM
SOUTHEAST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 32 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS AN INTERMITTENT CLOUD FILLED EYE FEATURE AND A SHARP
CLOUD EDGE ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP CONVECTION
INDICATING WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). COMPARISON TO A
101721Z SSMI/S 91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS A DEFINED MID LEVEL
EYE DISPLACED TO THE EAST OF THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION OF THE 101721Z SSMI/S IMAGE WITH
MODERATE CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 85 KNOTS IS BASED ON
A CONSENSUS OF MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY (CI) ESTIMATES
RANGING FROM T4.5 TO T5.0 (77 TO 90 KNOTS), HEDGED SLIGHTLY HIGHER
DUE TO A RECENT SATCON ESTIMATE OF 90 KNOTS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
SHOWS THAT VWS IS BECOMING UNFAVORABLE (15 TO 30 KNOTS) AS TC 19P
BECOMES EMBEDDED IN AN UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (SSTS) ARE NOW MARGINAL (26C) AND EXPECTED TO DROP BY 4
DEGREES IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AS TC 19P RAPIDLY ACCELERATES
SOUTHEASTWARD, THESE QUICKLY DETERIORATING CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO
STEADY WEAKENING BEFORE TAU 12 AND THEN RAPID WEAKENING AFTER.
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) HAS BEGUN AND IS EXPECTED TO BE
COMPLETE BY TAU 24, WITH WINDS STILL UP TO 60 KNOTS. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101800Z IS 29
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 110300Z, 110900Z AND 111500Z.
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 110300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (KENI) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
110000Z --- NEAR 25.5S 174.5W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 27 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 235 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.5S 174.5W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 31.4S 170.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 295 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 41 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 39.4S 168.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 355 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
320 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
110300Z POSITION NEAR 27.0S 173.5W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (KENI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 461 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF NIUE, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 27 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) SHOWS AN EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH DEEP
CONVECTION SHEARED APPROXIMATELY 50 NM TO THE POLEWARD AND EASTWARD
SIDE. A 102121Z METOP-B ASCAT AMBIGUITY IMAGE SHOWS AN ASYMMETRIC
WIND FIELD WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI, SUPPORTED BY
EXTRAPOLATION OF THE ASCAT IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 75 KNOTS
IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T4.0 TO T4.5 (65 TO 77 KNOTS), HEDGED HIGHER
DUE TO A 102119Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 88 KNOTS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
SHOWS THAT VWS IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE (20 TO 35 KNOTS)
AS TC 19P BECOMES EMBEDDED IN AN UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH. SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) ARE NOW MARGINAL (25C) AND WILL STEADILY
DROP OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, AS TC 19P RAPIDLY ACCELERATES
SOUTHEASTWARD. THESE QUICKLY DETERIORATING CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO
RAPID SPIN DOWN. TC 19P IS EXHIBITING CHARACTERISTICS OF
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AND IS EXPECTED TO COMPLETE ETT AS A
COLD CORE SYSTEM WITH STORM-FORCE WINDS BY TAU 24. DYNAMICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110000Z IS
27 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 110900Z, 111500Z AND 112100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 110900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (KENI) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
110600Z --- NEAR 27.7S 172.8W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 25 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 245 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 27.7S 172.8W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 35.0S 169.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 370 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
330 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
110900Z POSITION NEAR 29.5S 172.0W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19P (KENI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 540 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF NIUE, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 25 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
WEAKENING AND ASYMMETRIC CONVECTION AS TC 19P BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL.
THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON AN 110551Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE SHOWING THE REMAINING DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN SHEARED TO THE
SOUTH OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 65 KNOTS IS BASED ON A DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY (CI)
ESTIMATE OF T4.0 (65 KNOTS) FROM PGTW. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS TC
19P IS EXPERIENCING UNFAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (40 TO 50 KNOTS).
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE BECOME UNFAVORABLE, NEAR 25 DEGREES
CELSIUS. TC 19P WILL CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY TRACK TO THE SOUTHEAST AS IT
COMPLETES EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 12 WITH AN INTENSITY OF 55
KNOTS. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE
IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. THIS IS THE FINAL
WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI.
THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110600Z IS 27 FEET.//
Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.
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Document: tropical_cyclone_keni_jtwc_advisories.htm
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